Thursday, November 26 2009

TRINIDAD and Tobago’s economy is expected to grow next year by two percent. This was the projection given by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook for October. The IMF said there would be economic contraction in the Caribbean this year. Next year, the projection is for either stagnation or very slight growth in the region.

The Guyanese economy is expected to lead the way, with growth expected to be no more than four percent. TT’s economy “is projected to grow at about half that pace.” The tourism economies in the region are expected to lag. Most are expected to register output that remains no higher than that for 2009.

The IMF’s outlook projects that inflation will be in single digits everywhere in the Caribbean in 2009. In Haiti and Antigua and Barbuda, the index of consumer prices is expected to end the year below its level at the end of 2008. Inflation is expected to reach five percent only in Jamaica. Last week, the Central Bank reported that inflation in TT had fallen sharply to 2.7 percent.

Food inflation, the main driver of the headline inflation rate, slowed to 3.5 percent in the 12 months from October from 6.8 percent in the previous month. The bank said this was the first occasion that food inflation dipped below four percent since 1999. Minister in the Ministry of Finance Mariano Browne said despite the fact that the country recorded three successive quarters of negative growth, it was not in a recession.