Poll: three way split in voter support
Sunday, October 20 2013
An ongoing tracking opinion poll by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) on tomorrow’s local government election shows that splitting of votes and undecided voters have made the outcome unpredictable.
Election day machinery holds the key to the outcome, said NACTA.
The Association said the traditional PNM base remains largely intact while the People’s Partnership base is split with almost half going to the newly formed ILP. This three-way split in voter support for the PNM, PP and ILP makes the results of the election unpredictable except in some corporations and some seats that are traditionally won by the PNM, NACTA said.
The Association predicted that the PNM was set to take back control of several corporations it lost in July 2010, while PP gains in 2010 were being reversed because of a splintering of its traditional base.
NACTA said the poll showed the PNM in the lead in several seats in Chaguanas, the split vote giving it the edge where it would otherwise have had no chance. The split vote has also allowed the PNM to make inroads in Sangre Grande and Siparia that could cost the PP (UNC) control of both corporations, NACTA said, adding that this holds true for other areas like Rio Claro/Mayaro, Arima, San Fernando, and Diego Martin.
NACTA said the poll also showed that the ILP has made serious inroads in traditional UNC base, was getting a lot of traditional PNM support and has captured almost all of the support of the COP.
The tracking survey, conducted over the last month, interviewed some 3,300 voters. The margin of error was five percent.
According to the poll, voters told interviewers they liked Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar but not several of her ministers, MPs, councillors and chairpersons of corporations and that many of them were therefore planning on casting an anti-incumbent vote. The poll showed the Prime Minister receiving the highest rating in recent months for the Health Care Card initiative - 91 percent of voters said they supported it.