PNM has edge in close raceSunday, November 4 2007
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This woman was caught wearing a COP head band,...
THE FINDINGS of the final NACTA tracking poll released yesterday before tomorrow’s General Election has given the ruling People’s National Movement (PNM) the edge over the United National Congress Alliance (UNC A) but the last word from NACTA is that “the outcome is too close to call because eleven seats are up in the air and can go either for the PNM or opposition UNC A depending on the movement of voters on election day.”
According to the poll, the PNM is projected to win 16 to 27 seats, the UNC A 14 to 22 or 24 seats and the Congress of the People (COP), none.
However, the COP is said to be putting up a stiff contest against the PNM in a few traditional seats held by the PNM in the Port-of-Spain environs but is falling short because of the divided opposition. NACTA said yesterday that the COP is also giving the UNC A “a run for its money in its traditional seats.” The COP, according to NACTA, also has significant support in all the marginal seats and it is this support, which will determine which party-PNM, or UNC A- wins the marginals. If COP supporters stick it out with COP, according to NACTA, the PNM will pick up all the marginals. However, yesterday NACTA said, “Trends from recent polling show a movement of voters away from the COP towards the UNC A.”
“So right now,” according to the poll, “the battle is between the PNM and UNC A to win the elections with undecided voters and the remaining supporters of COP deciding whether it prefers PNM or UNC A to be in government.”
According to NACTA, several COP supporters have indicated that they prefer the PNM to the UNC A to form the government “because of their bitter hatred for Basdeo Panday.”
Based on the projections of the poll, the PNM is “safe” in most of its incumbent seats although it faces a “ shake up” in several of them such as Laventille East/Morvant, Laventille West, Arouca Maloney, Port-of-Spain North and South, St Ann’s East, Arima, San Fernando East, La Brea, D’Abadie/O’Meara, Tobago West, Point Fortin, La Horquetta, and the three Diego Martin seats:
Central, North/East and West.
The UNC A, NACTA said, is in a fighting battle in La Brea and Pt Fortin where the PNM is hovering just around 50 percent of the support but the split in the opposition has reduced the opposition prospect of picking up the seat.
The COP, according to NACTA, is in a strong battle with the PNM in the Diego Martin and in the Port-of-Spain and St Ann’s seats but the division in the opposition has badly hurt the COP’s electoral prospects in these seats. And according to NACTA, PNM supporters are voting for “their party”, not the candidates, to prevent the opposition from winning the election. Many indicated, “Ah born a PNM and ah go dead a PNM.”
Based on the projections of the findings, the UNC A is ahead in Siparia, Naparima, Oropouche East and West, Chaguanas West, St Augustine, Couva North and South, Princes Town North, Caroni East and Central, Tabaquite, Fyzabad, and Cumuto/Manzanilla. Voters complain that several of the incumbents (from both the COP and UNC A) have not effectively serviced their constituencies. But they are voting “party line” and not for the candidate.
NACTA said though that in a few of these UNC seats, such as Caroni Central, Couva North, the PNM could pull off an upset victory because its base is holding strong while the opposition is badly split. And while Cumuto/ Manzanilla is placed in the UNC A column, the PNM has a chance in this seat if COP pulls significant UNC A support.
Based on the poll’s projections, eleven seats are showing that the support for the opposition parties is greater than the support for the PNM and some of them are closely contested. There are several categories of these competitive seats. The traditional marginals of San Fernando West, Tunapuna, Barataria/San Juan and St Joseph are strongly leaning toward the PNM because of the deep split between the COP and UNC A but none of them should be ruled out going to the opposition. Mayaro is strongly leaning UNC A but if COP pulls enough support from UNC A, PNM will sneak in.
In Lopinot/Bon Air West, Princes Town South/Tableland, Chaguanas East, and Pointe-A-Pierre,
“It is a dead heat between PNM and UNC A with one or the other party slightly ahead,” NACTA said yesterday.
The margin between the UNC A and PNM is so small in these seats that any shift from COP will decide the fate of the seat. The UNC A, according to the poll, also has an outside chance in Sangre Grande/Toco which is turning out to be a competitive race with PNM ahead, but a lot of voters undecided. The Tobago East seat is also competitive between the PNM and the TUF/DAC.
“So overall,” the poll concluded, “the battle for control of the government is between the PNM and UNC A with COP making the difference in several seats and also having an outside chance of picking up a few seats.
Both the PNM and UNC A have seen a dip in their support from the last election. The PNM is projected to win about 43 percent, UNC A 35 percent and COP 19 percent of the popular votes.
Support for the two opposition parties has been shifting back and forth. As it stands, PNM has the edge to win the elections based on effects of incumbency and the split in the opposition. Election day machinery will also decide the fate of seats.
Because of the closeness of the contests in some constituencies, the number of seats each party wins will depend on voter movement in the remaining days and the turnout. Lower turnout will benefit the PNM while higher turnout will benefit the opposition. Many opposition supporters say they may not vote because of the split between the UNC A and COP; this will benefit the PNM “to romp home with a huge majority.”
PNM campaign manager Conrad Enill, UNC political leader Basdeo Panday and COP chairman Roy Augustus yesterday told Sunday Newsday their respective parties were continuing to do their work on the ground and could not take the poll’s findings as gospel.
Enill said the PNM’s own polls show that the battle in the marginals is “tight” and the ruling party is leaving nothing to chance with only 24 hours left to election day. He said the PNM is doing its work on the ground in all 41 constituencies and its election machinery has been fully prepared for some time now. Panday said he did not know what the basis was for the latest NACTA poll because the UNC A’s polls have placed it on course to win 22 seats.
Augustus described the NACTA poll as a “con game” and said the COP was not taking its findings seriously.
“We have our work to do and we will do it,” he said.
The findings of the poll were based on interviews conducted up to yesterday with likely voters to reflect the demographic composition of the population.
The results were analysed with a 95 percent confidence level and the margin of error obtained is between four and six percent. “NACTA,” the release said, “is not affiliated with any political party and has developed a reputation of accurately predicting the outcome of all elections (general, local and internal party polls) in the country since 1995.”
